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Serious doubt over Syria cease-fire
Oct 25th 2012, 06:48

  • The cease-fire would occur during a Muslim holiday that starts Friday
  • An international envoy said the government agreed "in principle" to a cease fire
  • Rebels don't believe the government will actually follow through with a cease-fire
  • Analyst: It will be difficult for rebels to resist the urge to fight

(CNN) -- Exhausted and destitute by an endless civil war, Syrians will find out Thursday whether its government will commit to halting violence -- if only for a few days.

A true cease-fire would be a historic break in 19 months of endless bloodshed. But if history repeats itself, the promise of a cease-fire would just be empty words.

On Wednesday, the U.N.-Arab League special envoy to the country said the government has agreed "in principle" to to a cease-fire in time for the Muslim Eid al-Adha holiday, which begins Friday and lasts four days.

But even President Bashar al-Assad's government seems disjointed on the issue. The Foreign Ministry spokesman told CNN the idea was "still under study," and a final decision will come Thursday.

A cease-fire in April barely lasted a day before bodies started falling again. In total, more than 32,000 Syrians have died since the conflict began in March 2011, opposition activists say.

International envoy Lakhdar Brahimi gave no details on the latest cease-fire proposal, other than it would take place during Eid al-Adha -- when Muslims around the world celebrate the end of the Hajj, the annual pilgrimage to Mecca.

But France's ambassador gave vague details after a Security Council meeting. After getting an official response from the Syrian government, the United Nations wants shelling in neighborhoods to stop, Gérard Araud said.

If that holds for three days, Araud said, the long-term goal is "to transform this truce into an enduring cease-fire."

But for the cease-fire to work, the Free Syrian Army has to abide by it.

The Free Syrian Army is a loosely organized group of men fighting al-Assad's well-armed forces, and they haven't given a united statement that they would agree.

But a self-described deputy commander said Wednesday that there's pretty much no chance the rebels will trust the Syrian government.

"We don't think the regime is serious with agreeing to the cease-fire, since more than 200 people are martyred every day by the government's forces," Malek Kurdi said.

It's foolish to expect a total cease-fire, said Aram Nerguizian, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Killing is going to continue sporadically, he said. A cease-fire in this context is about a larger goal of getting most rebel brigades and al-Assad forces to temporarily stop or reduce the killing.

"Based on our long experience in dealing with Assad('s) barbaric regime, we know that the Syrian government is just buying time and playing on words," said George Sabra, spokesman for the Syrian National Council, which speaks for rebels fighting al-Assad.

"The whole world knows that the Syrian regime cannot be trusted and doesn't have any credibility in fulfilling any promise that they make to anyone," said Sabra, who is based in Paris. "The crisis is too complicated in Syria, and the Assad regime is trying a diversion."

But the rebels themselves are partly to blame for this spring's cease-fire failing, analyst Nerguizian said.

They are disorganized and have been just as vicious in their killing as al-Assad's forces.

Getting them on the same page and having them resist the urge to fight, he said, is unrealistic.

CNN's Holly Yan, Hamdi Alkhshali and Salma Abdelaziz contributed to this report.

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